Statistics in disease ecology: introduction to a special issue

The three papers included in this special issue represent a set of presentations in an invited session on disease ecology at the 2005 Spring Meeting of the Eastern North American Region of the International Biometric Society. The papers each address statistical estimation and inference for particular components of different disease processes and, taken together, illustrate the breadth of statistical issues arising in the study of the ecology and public health impact of disease. As an introduction, we provide a very brief overview of the area of “disease ecology”, a variety of synonyms addressing different aspects of disease ecology, and present a schematic structure illustrating general components of the underlying disease process, data collection issues, and different disciplinary perspectives ranging from microbiology to public health surveillance.

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Resilience and sustainable development: building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations

Emerging recognition of two fundamental errors underpinning past polices for natural resource issues heralds awareness of the need for a worldwide fundamental change in thinking and in practice of environmental management. The first error has been an implicit assumption that ecosystem responses to human use are linear, predictable and controllable. The second has been an assumption that human and natural systems can be treated independently. However, evidence that has been accumulating in diverse regions all over the world suggests that natural and social systems behave in nonlinear ways, exhibit marked thresholds in their dynamics, and that social-ecological systems act as strongly coupled, complex and evolving integrated systems. This article is a summary of a report prepared on behalf of the Environmental Advisory Council to the Swedish Government, as input to the process of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, South Africa in 26 August 4 September 2002. We use the concept of resilience--the capacity to buffer change, learn and develop--as a framework for understanding how to sustain and enhance adaptive capacity in a complex world of rapid transformations. Two useful tools for resilience-building in social-ecological systems are structured scenarios and active adaptive management. These tools require and facilitate a social context with flexible and open institutions and multi-level governance systems that allow for learning and increase adaptive capacity without foreclosing future development options.     

The effect of opening windows on air change rates in two homes

More than 300 air change rate experiments were completed in two occupied residences: a two-story detached house in Redwood City, CA, and a three-story townhouse in Reston, VA. A continuous monitor was used to measure the decay of SF6 tracer gas over periods of 1-18 hr. Each experiment first included a measurement of the air change rate with all exterior doors and windows closed (State 0), then a measurement with the single change from State 0 conditions of opening one or more windows. The overall average State 0 air change rate was 0.37 air changes per hour (hr(-1)) (SD = 0.10 hr(-1); n = 112) for the California house and 0.41 hr(-1) (SD = 0.19 hr(-1); n = 203) for the Virginia house. Indoor/outdoor temperature differences appeared to be responsible for the variation at the Virginia house of 0.15-0.85 hr(-1) when windows were closed. Opening a single window increased the State 0 air change rate by an amount roughly proportional to the width of the opening, reaching increments as high as 0.80 hr(-1) in the California house and 1.3 hr(-1) in the Virginia house. Multiple window openings increased the air change rate by amounts ranging from 0.10 to 2.8 hr(-1) in the California house and from 0.49 to 1.7 hr(-1) in the Virginia house. Compared with temperature differences and wind effects, opening windows produced the greatest increase in the air change rates measured in both homes. Results of this study indicate the importance of occupant window-opening behavior on a home's air change rate and the consequent need to incorporate this factor when estimating human exposure to indoor air pollutants.     

Enhanced anaerobic bioremediation in a DNAPL residual source zone: Test Area North case study

An Interstate Technology and Regulatory Council (ITRC) forum was recently held that focused on case studies in which bioremediation of dense nonaqueous‐phase liquids (DNAPLs) was performed. This first case study, the Test Area North (TAN) site of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, involves a trichloroethene (TCE) residual source area in a deep, fractured basalt aquifer that has been undergoing enhanced bioremediation since January 1999. Complete dechlorination from TCE to ethene was documented within nine months of operation, and sodium lactate injections were shown to enhance TCE mass transfer from the residual source. Since that time, optimization of injection strategies has maintained efficient dechlorination while demonstrating accelerated cleanup at a lower cost by changing to a whey powder amendment that solubilizes DNAPL. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

WATER EXCHANGES: TOOLS TO BEAT EL NIÑO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE1

ABSTRACT: Using a case study of the Yakima River Valley in Washington State, this paper shows that relatively simple tools can be used to forecast the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on water supplies to irrigated agriculture, that this information could be used to estimate the significantly shifted probability distribution of water shortages in irrigated agriculture during El Niño episodes, and that these shifted probabilities can be used to estimate the value of exchanges of water between crops to relieve some of the adverse consequences of such shortages under western water law. Further, recently devised water‐trading tools, while not completely free under western water law to respond to forecasted El Niño episodes (ocean circulation patterns), are currently being employed during declared drought to reduce the devastating effects of water shortages in junior water districts on high valued perennial crops. Additional institutional flexibility is needed to take full advantage of climate forecasting, but even current tools clearly could prove useful in controlling the effects of climate variability in irrigated agriculture. Analysis shows the significant benefit of temporarily transferring or renting water rights from low‐value to high‐value crops, based on El Niño forecasts.     

Interactive effects of male and female age on extra-pair paternity in a socially monogamous seabird

Females sometimes obtain older sires for their offspring through extra-pair interactions, but how female age influences paternity is largely unexplored and interactive effects across the age span of both sexes have not been analyzed. To test whether female choice of sire age varies with female age in the blue-footed booby (Sula nebouxii), we examined associations between ages of both partners and the probability of extra-pair paternity (EPP) in 350 broods of parents up to 22 years old in a single breeding season. Extra-pair paternity enables a female to select an alternative sire for her offspring and could function to avoid or achieve particular combinations of parental ages. A male age?×?female age interaction revealed that in young females (≤4 years), EPP decreased with increasing age of the social partner, whereas in old females (≥8 years), it increased. Moreover, sires of extra-pair (EP) chicks of young females paired to young males were on average 6.33 years older than the females’ social partners. Since female boobies control copulatory access, this pattern could imply that young females choose old sires for their proven genetic quality and that old females avoid very old males because matings with them may risk infertility or genetic defects in offspring. Taking female age into account and observing across the whole age span may be necessary for understanding female age-based mate choice.     

Effectiveness of territorial polygyny and alternative mating strategies in northern fur seals, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Callorhinus ursinus</Emphasis>

We conducted a 6-year longitudinal behavioral and genetic investigation of a highly polygynous pinniped, the northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus), to determine the contribution of terrestrial polygyny to male fertilization success and to assess the occurrence of alternative mating strategies. Genetic samples from 37 adult males, 50 adult females, and 85 pups were collected and genotyped using five polymorphic microsatellite loci. Pup paternity was assigned using Cervus 2.0 at 99% confidence level. Paternity of 83 pups (98%) was assigned to terrestrial males who held territories or stayed temporarily in the study area during the breeding season when fertilization occurred. For 56 pups of which attendance records of their mothers were available, paternity of 45 pups (80%) was assigned to the associate males in whose territory their mothers stayed during the perioestrus period. In addition to defending breeding territories, territorial males have often been observed attempting to forcibly abduct adult females from adjacent territories (female stealing): We observed a total of 95 such cases, in which the stealers had significantly fewer females than the territorial males from whose territories they stole females. Our results indicate that terrestrial resource-defense polygyny is the major mating system in this species and that nonassociated paternity occurs mostly as a result of alternative mating strategies of less successful males. Male northern fur seals thus appear to adopt conditional alternative strategies that depend on their current social status to maximize their life-time reproductive success.     

PBDE flame retardants and PCBs in migrating Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured in blubber biopsy samples from 22 live-captured Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) that had just entered the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada, for their overwintering feeding season. ∑PBDE ranged from 50 μg kg⁻¹ (lipid weight) in adult females to 3780 μg kg⁻¹ in subadult individuals. ∑PCBs ranged from 272 μg kg⁻¹ in adult females to 14 280 μg kg⁻¹ in subadult individuals. While most PBDE and PCB congeners were transferred through milk to pups, PCBs with log K_OW > 7.0 (PCBs 206, 207, 208 and 209) appeared constrained, resulting in a lighter mixture in pups compared to adult females. The ratio of individual PCB congeners by metabolic group (Groups I, II, III, IV and V) to PCB-153 regressed against length of males suggested poor biotransformation of these compounds (slopes did not differ from zero, p > 0.05). PBDE congeners 49, 99, 153 and 183 appeared bioaccumulative (slopes of ratio BDE/PCB 153 versus length were higher than zero, p < 0.05), but the dominance of the single congener, BDE-47 (64% of total PBDEs), likely due in part to debromination pathways, reduced our ability to explore congener-specific dynamics of PBDEs in these pinnipeds. With 80% of our Steller sea lions exceeding a recent toxicity reference value for PCBs, the fasting-associated mobilization of these contaminants raises concerns about a heightened vulnerability to adverse effects during annual migrations.